How are the Alleged "Historical Fiction" Writer John Maclean and the Alleged YH Fire "Lead Investigator" Brad Mayhew Both Off Track About the June 30, 2013, YH Fire? Pt 2
Author Fred J. Schoeffler and other contributing authors
Views expressed to "the public at large” and "of public concern"
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Abbreviations used: Wildland Firefighters (WFs) - Firefighters (FFs).
Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing,
but inwardly they are ravenous wolves.
Matthew 7:15 (NKJV)
Because what follows is directly related to the "official" (because he lets you know he was again and again and again and again and again and ...) YH Fire Lead Investigator Brad Mayhew, this author is borrowing here from an American Thinker article about free speech on our college campuses and general scholarship, this author will rarely - when necessary - integrate some select facts, ideas, and quotations from the writing of others into and within this author's own ideas in [brackets] as follows. This concept is from a most edifying article by Clarice Feldman (April 30, 2023) titled: Speak Now or Forever Hold Your Peace - "The forces determined to monopolize the public square through censorship, lies, and social pressure have devastated universities and scholarship generally, allowed a corrupt [wildland fire] bureaucracy to ravage both our [personal and professional] lives, and stuck us with the most incompetent and corrupt [wildland fire] leadership [and investigators] in our history."
"One of the biggest forces behind the shifting tide is Elon Musk, who spent a fortune to unlock Twitter from government control."
He speaks for me here.
[We] should be extremely concerned about anything that undermines the First Amendment
"It's bizarre that we've come to this point where free speech used to be a liberal value. And yet we see from the 'left' a desire to censor. That seems crazy. I think we should be extremely concerned about anything that undermines the First Amendment ... We must protect free speech, and free speech is only relevant when it's someone you don't like saying something you don't like because, obviously, free speech that you like is easy. The thing about censorship is that for those who would advocate it, just remember at some point that will be turned on you."
Could this very well be the one-and-only alleged most likely Almighty Reverend Brad Mayhew with posturing like this as seen below in Figure 1?
Figure 1. YH Fire "Lead Investigator" and alleged likely natural Holy Roller posturing as Pastor Brad Mayhew Snippet Source: Todd Conklin PA Pod 297 Podcast
Figure 1a. Wolf in sheep's clothing Source: Disney, LibertyGram
All of us but that special "Chosen One" in the wildland fire investigator realm recognize this solemn Constitutional oath, right Mr. Mayhew?
Figure 2. Oath of office Source: 5 U.S. Code § 3331 - Oath of office“
Mayhew's alleged "recognition of mistakes and such apparently drove him to an indefensible cover-up, so simplistic as to be transparent and which scarred his conscience for the rest of his life” The Last Stand Nathaniel Philbrick. (University of Notre Dame magazine)
"Long before Custer [Marsh and the GMHS] died at the Little Bighorn [YH Fire], the myth of the Last Stand [YH Fire and GMHS tragedy]already had a strong pull on human emotions, and on the way we like to remember history. The variations are endless—from the three hundred Spartans at Thermopylae to Davy Crockett at the Alamo—but they all tell the story of a brave and intractable hero leading his tiny band against a numberless foe. Even though the odds are overwhelming, the hero and his followers fight on nobly to the end and are slaughtered to a man. In defeat the hero of the Last Stand [YH Fire and GMHS tragedy] achieves the greatest of victories, since he will be remembered for all time."
Figure 2a. Wolf in sheep's clothing image Source: FB
Take no part in the
unfruitful works of darkness,
but instead expose them.
Ephesians 5:11 (NKJV)
Figure 3. Restatement of the obvious image Source: George Orwell, FB
This author certifies sending the following email to Brad Mayhew on Sunday July 28, 2013, once he found out that Mayhew was "chosen" as the "official" YH Fire Lead Investigator for the Federally-funded USFS SAIT-SAIR - even though it was an AZ State Forestry wildfire. This author basically pleaded with him to perform an accurate and worthy investigation. Mayhew NEVER responded to this author! A certified Declaration follows the email below.
"Brad,
"I'll keep it brief because I'm sure you've been swamped with emails.
"They [GMHS] violated numerous, basic safety rules and it was fatal. To leave "good black" and travel through the unburned green and then into a bowl is totally the wrong thing to do any time under the weather and fire behavior conditions they travelled (sic) in. And to do this without a Lookout and then into the unburned green, and finally into a bowl. Fatal mistakes! There can be no other conclusion but human error. There were several good firefighters on that Crew that knew - or should have known - better. I am thinking it had to be Groupthink, which I am sure you are fairly well versed in. I'm including a couple links to some good research papers, particularly the military one.
( http://www.psysr.org/about/pubs_resources/groupthink%20overview.htm ) [https://psysr.net/resources/]
( http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA387009 ) [https://discover.dtic.mil/]
"The weather was clearly predictable. Several notifications by the Flagstaff NWS ensured that. Then there is the Cliff Mass Weather Blog Yarnell Fire, also check out the Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison - CIMSS Satellite Blog Yarnell Hill Fire. Very accurate and informative wx information - our first Fire Order.
"Reviewing the Common Denominators (at least 3), Fire Orders (half of them), and the 18 Watch Outs (numerous) to see where they blundered and why they died. This was very similar to the Dude Fire in 1990, the South Canyon Fire in 1994, and the Mackenzie Fire near Kingman, AZ (no deaths but a bowl was involved). You should be able to review these on the Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center under Incident Reviews. If this was the Crew and leadership that the Prescott FD alleges, then they would have trained in and known all this. However, they fatally failed to take these into account.
"This event was entirely predictable and preventable. This was matter-of-factly human error. You can come to no other conclusion. Drink not the Yarnell Hill Fire Kool-Aid that says it was not.
"Also, please address the continuing onslaught of Prescott FD Wildland Chief Darrel Willis and the moronic Jim Paxon stating otherwise and attempting to rewrite/revise the Wildland Firefighting Rules. All you have to do is read the news articles and/or watch their video clips. For example, "LCES is/was emphasized, but there are points during that workday that you don't have that in place. There are times that you don't have all these standards in place, especially with them moving like they were. They couldn't leave anybody behind [as a lookout]." In another interview, Willis stated that predetermined Escape Routes and Safety Zones were impossible.
"They were not satisfied, no wildland firefighter is satisfied sitting there and watching the fire progress without taking any action." "In my heart, I know that they were not protecting themselves, that they're going to protect that Ranch. You are going to protect the house and not yourselves. They protect themselves as a last resort."
"And now to his Groupthink statement: "One of the things that was very unique about this fire situation was that 19 firefighters saw and felt the same way. Nobody cut and run .... nobody tried to get out of the way. ... I would have been with that Crew blindfolded. They could have led me down there. I'd have been with them. I have complete faith and trust in their leadership." He alludes to this in other interviews and statements.
"He even goes so far as telling the reporters that they chose the best possible spot in the bowl to deploy their shelters. If you deploy your fire shelter someone has messed up. These guys really messed up.
"Please. You must come to the conclusion of human error. There is no other than human factors. The environmental factors were clearly predictable in every way. Also, please address the dangerous Structural fire attitude of risking one's life for structures and that their lives come secondary and as a "last resort."
Fred Schoeffler
[phone # removed]" (Parentheses and current Groupthink-related links added the source links above) [End of this author's email to Mayhew]
Declaration: Fred J. Schoeffler was a former USDA US Forest Service (USFS) Hot Shot Supt. and a former Southwest Area Hot Shot Steering Committee (SWA HS SC) Chairman from 1981-2007. I am aware that this declaration may be filed with the US District Court of Arizona; and that it is the legal equivalent of a statement under oath.
1. I submit this declaration on behalf of myself based on personal knowledge of conversations with Mr. Mayhew while a Los Padres HS seeking input on his LCES work, and a Sunday July 28, 2013, email with Mr. Brad Mayhew offering input to assist him in his and his being selected as the 6/30/13, YH Fire Lead Investigator.
2. Schoeffler has the longest tenure status of any USFS Hot Shot Superintendent (Payson HS) in the US (1981-2007).
3. Schoeffler helped Brad Mayhew when still the Payson HS Supt.
4. Schoeffler was approached by phone by former Los Padres HS Supt. Mark Linane about one of his employees, Mr. Brad Mayhew.
5. Former LPHS Supt. Mark Linane asked Schoeffler to look at Mayhew's nascent work on Lookouts, Communications, Escape Routes, Safety Zones (LCES).
6. Schoeffler approved of and encouraged him to carry on with it.
7. Mayhew did so and ultimately attended Graduate School earning a Human Factors Master’s Degree.
8. Mayhew would use his Master’s Degree to start his Fireline Factors business and establish his Fireline Factors website.
9. Mayhew has been chosen to "investigate" and/or "review" numerous other wildland fire mishaps, i.e. Pagami Creek (2010), Coal Canyon (2010), Saddleback (2013), and Freezeout Ridge (2014)
10. Schoeffler knows by heart the Rules of Engagement and the solid principles of Entrapment Avoidance, e.g. Ten Standard Fire Orders, LCES, Eighteen Watch Out Situations, Carl Wilson’s Common Denominators to Near Miss and Fatality Fires, and the Downhill Line Checklist; spelling, grammar, and punctuation!
11. Schoeffler’s Sunday July 28, 2013, email to Mayhew contained the exact same text and verbiage as posted in this YHFR Wix post. Mayhew never responded to Schoeffler.
I declare under penalty of perjury that the foregoing is true and correct. Executed in Pine, Arizona on this 29th day of July 2023 with an electronic signature.
Fred John Schoeffler - Project 10 & 18 International (Officer)
I certify that on July 29, 2023, I submitted the above to the Yarnell Hill Fire Revelations Wix website post titled: How are the Alleged "Historical Fiction" Writer John Maclean and the Alleged YH Fire "Lead Investigator" Brad Mayhew Both Off Track About the June 30, 2013, YH Fire? Pt 2 with an electronic signature. Fred John Schoeffler - /s/ Fred John Schoeffler
"Where no contrary evidence is offered or other evidence exists to create a reasonable doubt, an investigator’s unrebutted affidavit is prima facie evidence of public performance." Lorimar Music, 2010 WL 3022962, *3 (citing Cross Keys, 887 F.Supp. at 222)
Figure 3b. Knowing or not knowing the truth and ignorance image Source: FB
Where no contrary evidence is offered or other evidence exists
to create a reasonable doubt,
an investigator’s unrebutted affidavit is prima facie evidence of public performance.
Lorimar Music, 2010 WL 3022962, *3 (citing Cross Keys, 887 F.Supp. at 222)
This author alleges that Mayhew's elevation to the "official" YH Fire and GMHS SAIT "Lead Investigator" is a key part of a now Ten Year-Old propaganda campaign to conceal and/or erase any mention of GMHS Supt. Marsh as being responsible for the deaths of his men and himself once he realized that his bad decisions were going to get all his men killed and he'd have to live with that guilt. There are unwitting victims of this campaign - those who lack the knowledge to separate history from sentiment. Then there are those whose reverence for Marsh relies on replacing the actual Marsh with a mythical figure who never truly existed. This is too divorced from Marsh’s actual life to even be classed as fan fiction; it is plain and simple historical illiteracy. The EMF had engaged in a dubious legal interpretation of what the alleged YH Fire and GMHS "hero" was.
Marsh has obviously become a pivotal figure in American history by a tragic circumstance worthy of some serious study. Neither the man who really existed, nor the fictionalized tragic hero of the YH Fire and GMHS debacle, are heroes worthy of that place of dubious honor. To describe these men (Marsh and Mayhew) as American heroes requires ignoring the immense suffering for which they are allegedly personally responsible, both on and off the firelines. It requires ignoring Mayhew's alleged participation in the investigation industry deceit and lies, his betrayal of his duty in defense of that alleged solemn institution, the YH Fire firelines scattered with the lifeless bodies of men who followed Marsh's orders and those he killed, his hostility toward the rights of the GMHS and their families, friends, and loved ones and his indifference to his own families, friends, and loved ones allegedly waging a campaign of deceit against the newly deceased. It requires reducing the sum of human virtue to a sense of dignity and the ability to convey the requisite honesty and seriousness that supposed trained professional wildland WFs (GMHS) were clearly and obviously outdone by a prescient local "blue pants" Task Force of Municipal Structural FFs. "Why is it that a group of 'Hybrid' Firefighters from the Sun City West Fire Department successfully and judiciously noticed the increased June 30, 2013, late afternoon fire behavior, and then proactively disengaged, but the Granite Mountain Hot Shots (GMHS) perished because they did neither?" YHFR January 24, 2019
Artistic license is used to portray the thoughts of people, for example, and Mayhew’s citing, admitting to his own several "mistakes." This gives his books, his histrionic presentations the feel of a novel, and combined with grievances and deceit in testimonies, puts the participant, the reader, the inquisitive FF and WF seeking honest answers and "complete" lessons learned in a quandary of trying to distinguish fact from fiction. The real question is why anyone else would assure you that he is the only one that could do that. "And I came to the conclusion that we really hadn't learned what we need to learn from this event ... that started this new mission that I call learning from Granite Mountain. ... It's really my role … is to equip them and empower them to lead and innovate and offer ... And I think I have something to offer in terms of specifically where I think we could go, but more importantly is how do I equip and inspire others. ... I kind of wrote it all up and had this nice, you know, very, I thought very clear, you know, well written sort of report style approach ..." Arrogance!
Consider now a Jan. 9, 2015, email from YH Fire Eyewitness Hiker Sonny Gilligan to PFD Darrel Willis actually claiming to be forthright: "My focus has been and always will be the truth and I believe I have been willing to share what I know and what I did on June 30th, 2013 and anything about GMIHC with anyone. ... I still do not know all the facts about Yarnell Hill, and even if it is not what I want to hear I am interested in the truth, not opinions or theories. I too want to make sure this does not happen again to anyone anywhere. I do not have anything against you or Joy, and the Amanda Beno-Marsh order does not apply to me. I would count it a blessing to not allow this event to come between us. This tragedy will be with us as long as we live and there is no reason to be in a confrontation atmosphere when we are both seeking the same thing."
Figure 3c. Jan. 9, 2015, PFD Willis and Gilligan email screenshot Source: ASF Re3crds Request, Collura
It's this author's professional opinion that the alleged Pastor Mayhew's overall path regarding the YH Fire and GMHS debacle requires us to revisit the notion of lying and speaking ill of the dead or the preferred notion of telling the truth and honoring the dead. This belief is made rather clear with "Progressive Christian" author Fred Clark (Patheos) to "Test all things; hold fast what is good" - 1 Thessalonians 5:21 (NKJV) in his article titled: "Speaking truth of the dead" boldly states: "Never speak ill of the dead,' we are told. ... More specifically, it’s the kind of nonsense one arrives at when one separates the quality of words from their accuracy, and thus when one starts to believe that tone is more important than meaning, and therefore that pleasant falsehoods are preferable to unpleasant truths. ... The bottom line is very simple: Try to live a life that blesses others rather than cursing them, a life that benefits and enriches others rather than harming them. Try to live a life that will allow others to speak the truth without speaking ill. ... The dead, like the past, are not always wholly done with us. The power they abused and misused in life — the damage, the harm they’ve set in motion, the misery they’ve caused, the actions they’ve inspired in others who survive — continues, and continuing to oppose that enduring power isn’t punching down. It’s necessary. It is a form of self-defense, of healing, of rebuilding and replanting and reconstruction."
Our Boulder Springs Trail Yarnell property owners, fellow Truth Tellers, and numerous AZ State Park GMHS Memorial Trail hikers, the YH Fire and GMHS fatality site bowl has mixed and ambivalent history as one of those so-called "healing places." Based on Joy A. Collura's interviews (2014-2016) with Yavapai Apache elders and our likewise discussions with Yarnell Real Estate personnel, the YH Fire and GMHS bowl area was the scene of an LDS (Mormon) and Yavapai Apache massacre. Yarnell Real Estate personnel stated there were others. Our Boulder Springs Trail Yarnell property deeds, and other public records reveal prior LDS ownership.
In 2017, a USFS WF who had grown up in Prescott and knew and very close to GMHS Jesse Steed (RiP) personally was returning from a fire assignment in AZ or NM with his Crew, and they stopped at the AZ SP GMHS Memorial Trail. They hiked all the way to the Deployment Zone (DZ) and Fatality Site and met an “old man” at the site. They spoke and the “old man” shared details of the GMHS and Steed. Later that night the WF dreamed of he and Steed being on the YH Fire. He said he could “feel the heat” and “smell the smoke.” When he awoke, he stated that his room and his clothes distinctly“smelled like smoke.”
On the thirtieth anniversary (2020) of the June 26, 1990, Dude Fire, the Lassen Hot Shots, this author, along with the AZ Desert Walker and YH Fire and GMHS debacle Eyewitness Hiker, the "Into the Black" historian and YH Fire and GMHS documentary film-maker, did a site visit. We were on-site visiting the actual fatality site at the precise time the six individuals were burned over and died.
From there - minus the Lassen Hot Shots - these same individuals visited the June 30, 2013, YH Fire and GMHS Deployment Zone and Fatality Site on the seventh anniversary (2020) at the precise time the 19 individuals were burned over and died. This author experienced some very palpable, very real disturbing thoughts and reactions vowing to never do that ever again.
On another occasion, two credible Truth Teller individuals - who will remain anonymous - had camped out overnight on the GMHS fatality site. They awoke in the predawn hours to “radio traffic of men screaming and sounds of men running to and fro.” Understandably, they stated that they stayed awake the remainder of the night.
Try to live a life that will allow others to speak the truth without speaking ill.
The dead, like the past, are not always wholly done with us.
Patheous - Fred Clark
Consider now several germane Yarnell Hill Fire Revelations website posts below dealing with the alleged and fabricated truth of the who, what, and why of the June 2013 YH Fire and GMHS debacle. This is followed by an RT-130 Wildland Fire Safety Training Annual Refresher (WFSTAR - April 2018) WFSTAR YH Fire Weather Channel video, including Brit Rosso, the former WLF LLC Center Manager and his dialogue in Figure 5. below. The Otter app transcript is then utilized for better comprehension by writing it which allows being able to then read Rosso's spoken-words-format of his discussion on how important it is to talk about the YH Fire proximate to the tragedy to facilitate ongoing healing and for true lessons learned "for years to come." This author vows for its 90-95% accuracy rate. This author will also utilize numerous images and quotes following Dr. D. H. Hepting's famous maxim that “a picture is worth a thousand words.” Or is it "ten thousand words”? Either way, they will allow this author the legal need to repeatedly say "alleged" visually with these images.
Figure 4. Bragging and lion quote Source: Quiet Moments, FB
You can pardon most anything in a man who will tell the truth, because you know where that man is; you know what he seems. If anyone lies, if he has the habit of untruthfulness, you cannot deal with him because there is nothing to depend on.
Theodore Roosevelt (President Roosevelt Address at Ventura, CA 5/9/03)
Figure 4a. (top left) Honesty, truth, & compassion vs. injustice, lying, greed quote. (top right) Hegellian Dialectic. (lower left) Harriet Martineau truth quote, (lower right) truths image Source: (top right) W. Faulkner, FB (lower left) FB (lower left) FB, (lower right) Victor Hugo, FB
H. L. Mencken
Was the Prescott Way Prescott FD "hero" and "sacrifice" rhetoric a causal factor of the June 30, 2013, YH Fire and GMHS fatalities? (YHFR 12/5/21)
What Are the Underground Honor the Fallen Group Ulterior Motives For Defending the GMHS Decisions? (YHFR 4/28/22)
Why Has the Wildland Fire LLC Lost Its Ethical Compass Defending The YH Fire SAIT-SAIR? (YHFR 6/2/22)
Consider now former WLF LLC Center Manager Brit Rosso's WFSTAR YH Fire Weather Channel video introductory speech setting the stage for this . (April 2018) Otter app transcription discussing the importance of talking about the YH Fire to heal, to learn true lessons from it, and move forward.
Figure 5. Snippet of WFSTAR YH Fire Weather Channel video. Brit Rosso, former WLF LLC Center Mgr. (April 2018) Otter app transcript discussing the importance of talking about the YH Fire to heal and to learn lessons from it. Source: Weather Channel, WFSTAR, NWCG, YouTube, Otter
"What I want to share with you as how important it is to talk about it, not only to talk about it. Share what you've learned by reading the reports and watching the videos and have open, honest, respectful dialogue with your fellow firefighters. By having this dialogue, by facilitating these conversations about your ... now this is where the learning is going to happen with you and your brothers and sisters out there in the field.
"This is the 20th anniversary of South Canyon. We're still learning from South Canyon and 20 years later, you're in ... it'll ... it just happened eight months ago. We'll be learning about the Yarnell incident for years to come.
"Time and patience are going to be key for learning from this incident. So I ask you to just take the time and be patient as we work through this together."
WLF LLC Center Manager Brit Rosso (2018)
So then, how is it that Rosso is telling us how important it is to "talk and share and learn and then how important it is to talk about it, not only to talk about it. Share what you've learned by reading the reports and watching the videos and have open, honest, respectful dialogue with your fellow firefighters" and yet Mayhew is both ignoring one of the two Eyewitness Hikers and prohibiting this author from merely asking a question - after asking the entire San Diego Safety Summit group if there were any further comments or questions?
Beloved, do not believe every spirit,
but test the spirits, whether they are of God;
because many false prophets have gone out into the world.
1 John 4:1 (NKJV)
Figure 5a. Mayhew Fireline Factors Publications Snippets Source: Fireline Factors
Figure 5b. (left) Mayhew Fireline Factors Publications Snippet dated July 2023, before being blocked Source: Fireline Factors, LinkedIn Figure 5c. (right) Mayhew Fireline Factors Publications Snippet after being blocked Source: Fireline Factors, LinkedIn
Figure 5d. Mayhew Fireline Factors Publications Snippet dated July, 10, 2023, before being blocked Source: Fireline Factors,
Figure 5e. Mayhew Fireline Factors Publications Snippet number two dated July 17, 2023, after being blocked Source: Fireline Factors.
Figure 5f. Mayhew Fireline Factors Publications Snippet number three dated July 19, 2023, after being blocked Source: Fireline Factors.
Check those out! Which ones are they Mr. Mayhew? "Thanks for signing up!" and "It's good to have you!" Are you "allowing" this author in or are you blocking him out?
Sources: LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/bradmayhew/); (https://www.amazon.com/stores/Brad-Mayhew/author/B09JHTW5TH?ref=ap_rdr&store_ref=ap_rdr&isDramIntegrated=true&shoppingPortalEnabled=true); Good Reads
(https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/20419843.Brad_Mayhew); NWCG (https://www.nwcg.gov/sites/default/files/training/docs/rt-130-sw-lces-adequate.pdf); USDA (https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/treesearch/41947) Coal Cyn SAIT; , of course, American Fire Saga (https://bradmayhew.substack.com/about)
27th Annual 2019 CA Interagency Wildland Fire Risk Management Conference - Agenda - Risk Refusal, Myth vs Reality Brad Mayhew – Fire Line Factors
Figure 6. 27th Annual April 2019 CA Interagency Wildland Fire Risk Management Conference - Agenda Snippet Source: CA WFRMC
Figure 6a. Crazy Wisdom Collage (left) Wolf in sheep's clothing image (upper right) Mario Murillo blog logo (bottom center) Source: Mario Murillo
Since alleged Pastor Mayhew’s voice has been heard by millions around the world he should seriously consider some of the posts and "the most important message [he] has ever given to pastors" on this amazing professional pastor's website: A Prophet’s Crazy Wisdom by Mario Murillo (Jan. 20. 2023)
Moreover, if your brother sins against you,
go and tell him his fault between you and him alone.
If he hears you, you have gained your brother.
Matthew 18:15 (NKJV)
This author alleges that a modern-day wildland fire human factors “self-identified prophet” has arisen and is boldly claiming to bring a “new revelation” to the June 30, 2013, YH Fire and GMHS debacle. The answer is clear. His message is far from prophetic and he is really only an alleged prophet in his own mind, and those that seem to worship him, those drinking the Kool-Aid and deluded by him! Is this something new or is it the same old lie in a new guise?
Consider this new scientific knowledge research in "The psychopathic path to success. Psychopathic tendencies may be present to some extent in all of us. New research is reframing this often sensationalized and maligned set of traits and finding some positive twists." The Mind - David Adam - July 19, 2023.
You will readily discover that Mr. Mayhew is quite the alleged verbalist using double- and triple-negatives and babbling redundancy (e.g. "... what I can see was it wasn't just... And in my own case, I felt that you know … who knows? We'll see. We'll see what's … we'll see. We'll see how it all shakes out. But for me, I thought that the most meaningful thing that I could do is find a way to make this meaningful, that will be the most meaningful thing that I could do."
To anger a conservative, lie to him.
To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.
Unknown, some unverified evidence from Theodore Roosevelt
Figure 7. Marcus Aurelius truth seeking quote image Source: MA, FB
Todd Conklin Pre-Accident Investigation – PA Pod 297 (July 22, 2020) Investigator Works at Moving Forward - Brad Mayhew podcast
(Get Caught Trying to Make the World Better! Best Safety Podcast, Safety Program, Safety Storytelling, Investigations, Human Performance, Safety Differently, Operational Excellence, Resilience Engineering, Safety and Resilience Incentives.)
Permission to post: "You can have anything you want anytime you want it"
Figure 7a. Todd Conklin permission to post email Snippet Source: TC
Consider now Mr. Mayhew's allegedly ongoing blatantly incoherent babbling and circular reasoning, and begging the question. with some select TC-BM podcast transcript excerpts with Mayhew single-handedly, almost ADD at times, vacillating, frenzied, continually repeating himself, with 98% accuracy as generated by the Otter.app:
Conklin: Seven years ago I think it's exactly 2013 was when this event happened. The event is called in the business, the Yarnell Hill fire. And it took 19 firefighters that were serving on the Granite Mountain Hot Shot Crew. And their lives were lost, and they were lost in fighting a wildland fire and it was a horrible event. They're always horrible, but this one was especially horrible. There was a movie made on it. I mean, there was much going on here as with all events than events investigation was led by a guy named Brad Mayhew and if you don't know, ... And Brad's got a series of books that he's created around this, and we're going to talk about that because it's worth talking about. But to get into this. I think one of the most important things to share with you is really what it's like to be an investigator on a major event like this. And that's what I had built on and I talked to people who do these investigations because the snapshot of what is going on in their head. And what they're thinking is, is quite significant. It's a … it's really interesting. But Brad and I are going to talk much about the Yarnell Hill Fire because his new series of his expedition of books he's talking about and the first one is called Origins, and it's available now actually on Amazon. And it's … it's really the discussion of what it was like to do the investigation and what it was like after the investigation was over, that I think you'll find most interesting. ... But I can tell you it was meaningful, and it got a bit emotional. And it should, that's not a problem at all. But I think it makes for a learnable teachable moment for us. And it really, it allows us to understand more, what's going on during an investigation, and most importantly, what's going on after you've done investigation. ... so without any more fanfare. Let's listen to this conversation. Brad and I are going to chat about life, love, and investigation
Brad Mayhew 03:51
I’m Brad Mayhew and in a nutshell, basically, I was going to college studying history wanting to be Indiana Jones. I was wondering, and my senior year 911 happened and I had to find a new path that felt would feel to me like it was serving my country the best I could, and I thought about joining the military, becoming a cop, or becoming a firefighter. And there was already cops and military guys in the family. And so I thought well, maybe I'll be a firefighter. I had friends that were Hot Shots and I wanted to do what they had done and got fortunate enough eventually to end up on a hotshot crew in Southern California [Los Padres HS] was really interested in you know, as a young, new firefighter, your whole purpose in life is really to be you know, like the best. The best firefighter you can be. You know, though, that was my whole focus, so I was really interested in studying fire behavior tactics. And there was this, the sticking point where there was a limit to how good you could get. And one of our most senior guys our retired superintendent came over after work one day and was drinking a beer with with the fellas and, you know, I was asking him what his thoughts were, you know, this guy was, you know, this Ultra, super human figure [former Lops Padres Hot Shot Supt.] And he said, Brad, you've got to study human factors. If you really want to get take this to a new level you have to study human factors and I didn't want to do that. I didn't care because that was kind of a soft to me. That was the sort of soft stuff that I avoided in college. You know, I was history and ancient languages and archaeology and digging the dirt someday. And here's somebody telling me I gotta study sociology and psychology and I ignored him promptly and had another beer. And a few months later, I realized he was right. And that was the beginning of this journey for me that really transformed the rest of my life. So I got into studying human factors, building human factors, training programs for their fire crews. That kind of took off in the in the Hot Shot world, and then had the opportunity to participate in accident investigations, which was not again one of those things that I really didn't want to do this. This is a young firefighter mentality, but I didn't see. I mean, ... it's my job and my Crew's job to keep ourselves safe. What ... what's the Agency going to do? It doesn't make sense to think about improved. It doesn't make sense. That I was so cynical about the importance of improving the system, but I was a very young guy. So I didn't see the point even of doing investigations. I know that doesn't ... that isn't logical, but that's how I thought. Anyway, I got drawn into some investigations, and had the opportunity to do some really, really meaningful work that was personally meaningful and professionally, and then ended up serving as the Lead Investigator on the Yarnell Hill Fire in 2013, and felt that we had done what we came to do, and about a few years later, I was back working as a firefighter. And I came to the conclusion that we really hadn't learned what we need to learn from this event. I think that's the most tactful way to say that simply. And that started this new mission that I call learning from Granite Mountain. And that's been the center of my world for the last the last three years."
"I got drawn into some investigations, and had the opportunity to do some really, really meaningful work that was personally meaningful and professionally, and then ended up serving as the Lead Investigator on the Yarnell Hill Fire in 2013.
"A few years later, and I came to the conclusion that we really hadn't learned what we need to learn from this event."
Figure 8. Masses & Truth illusion image Source: Gustav LeBon, FB
Todd Conklin 07:52
And so you started writing one book, what makes you think this will be a series of smaller books? Not one gigantic tome of information. What led you in that direction? Because I think that's really a clever idea.
Brad Mayhew 08:11
Thank you. I'm glad you think it is,
Todd Conklin 08:13
I really do. I mean, I think, I think it's, it makes it attainable. It builds on itself, like… like an accident would right? ... So, but you can build contexts, you can actually give information in a way that you could almost reconstruct some of the mindset. It seems really an interesting way to do it, just between you and I.
Brad Mayhew 08:45
So there's a couple of reasons. The pure, like, writing reason is that this started off … I really when I started … I thought I’d basically do something like an indent. I would not call it this and it's no ... I'm not doing any of this in any sort of official capacity. This is a one man kind of adventure and I'm 100% responsible for every mistake that is made in this process, but I really was thinking in terms of just building something like little "X" investigation report, you know, we'll go in correct some pieces of, you know, maybe some misunderstandings that people have about the accident, round up a few recommendations and some insights and they'll be there short, little short and sweet little, you know, little report, we get it done a few months and then hit the road and talking about it. What I discovered ... I came to see was that the issues that have emerged after this tragedy, touch every thing that we care about in the fire service, from human factors, interagency dynamics, to individual judgment, decision making, to how we investigate to how we deal with critical incident, stress issues, all of these huge issues. And then what I can see was it wasn't just that there was like a simple bullet point recommendation. It was ... hold on. We're looking at these things in the wrong way. And it's time for us to take the next step. And in some cases, And that started this new mission that I call learning from Granite Mountain. But then I realized that what really matters is inspiring other firefighters and other thinkers and other leaders who are out there right now who have answers have zeal ... they have the energy in themselves. Now, to bring that to bear on these problems. It's really my role … is to equip them and empower them to lead and innovate and offer what they have to offer. And what I really saw, what I began to see is it appeared to me that our struggle isn't just that okay, we have this one piece of the system we need to fix or even we have these 100 things and we just need to fix this. This isn't … it's we need to take a step back and look at this in a new way, in a fresh way. We may we may need some new paradigms. And I think I have something to offer in terms of specifically where I think we could go, but more importantly is how do I equip and inspire others. And so, so that was like this major shift in how I approached what I was doing. And I kind of wrote it all up and had this nice, you know, very, I thought very clear, you know, well written sort of report style approach. And I started working with the ... with a different editor who kind of, you know, sat me down and said, Listen, this is this is great stuff, and how effective do you think you're gonna be laying out your information in this way? And we kind of talked about it. And he really persuaded me that ... if we want to serve the people we're trying to serve, we need to figure out how to take them on a journey. Right? We're trying to take them from one place and introduce something new and take them there so they can experience it. And … and so as soon as you ... as soon as you take that approach, it's like well, I can't just rush through a bunch of bullet points that that concisely and clearly make the point I want to make, I gotta show you, how do we get there and what does that mean for you and what can you do with it? So that so suddenly, we went from kind of a little book to kind of a longer book to how the heck do you do that? And so we reconceptualize it as well wait a minute, let's just take, let's take each of these pieces that we can see. And let's turn that into an experience for the reader. And let's don't call it a book. We actually call the series now it's an expedition. And we're gonna roll up our sleeves and we're gonna start hiking together and I'm gonna show you what I've seen and what I know and, you know, some, some adventures, you know, back you know, and, and the whole intent is for the people who want to go on this journey. We're ready to go on this journey. You're gonna see your world in the new way. And you're gonna see yourself in a new way and, and you're gonna be empowered and equipped to take action. And the reason why I know that's gonna happen is because our history is the history of firefighting. In America, the history of the American fire service, is that you have a problem. You have a group of firefighters that look at that problem, roll up their sleeves and start taking action, and they end up doing something good. And if you look at our major tragedies through the history of firefighting in particular, just to focus on the history of wildland firefighting, we had major tragedies for the last century, and each of those tragedies prompted a group of firefighters to find ways to really transform the profession to take it to the next level. So we just keep getting better and better and better. And the fact that that has not happened yet, after the Yarnell Hill Fire, I think is I don't I when I started, I took that as well. There's something wrong here. Something's totally wrong here. Now I see it as no, no, no. We have what we need. We are what we need. We can do this. We can get there. We just need some new tools. We need some new a new way of thinking. And the people whom I'm trying to serve, you know are some of us are a little you know, have a tension problems, have short attention spans.
Todd Conklin 15:04
That's a good way to say that. Well,
Brad Mayhew 15:05
it was a polite way to say it. And so I figured, you know, if I try to dump still 3000 Page tome on people, you know, what are you going to do with it? I don't know. But how it is now is these are short, sweet little books. You can read them in about an hour. That's the vision at least you can stash in your cargo pocket you can take it with you on a fire you I remember so many days. You know sitting on some someone a wildland fire when nothing's happened and there's nothing you can do with pulling out a book and, and reading it sometimes. There was practical stuff. And sometimes it was you know, Harry Potter is something playful. And I envision people reading these books and you know, being out in the middle and so you got to make them small enough for folks to do that. And to take them on a journey and let them digest each stage of this journey one step at a time and to accomplish something. When you get to the end of the book, you achieved something that was kind of the vision.
Todd Conklin 16:08
It strikes me that you're also kind of describing the way you doing an investigation
Brad Mayhew 16:17
I think so. Yeah. I think so in in a way you could say this is yes, I agree with that.
Todd Conklin 16:30
If I had if I had to describe it, I would say it's it's an investigator looking at how investigations cause positive change, or can cause positive change or should cause positive May I think that that's what I heard you say? Just sounds super interesting.
Brad Mayhew 16:55
I would almost I think it might add to that it's an investigator looking at how your work could cause positive change. Minus the usual constraints on your time, unusual organizational and normal social and political constraints that go with doing an investigation. This is just kind of me going okay, we completed the official investigation. And now it's been seven years. What can we do? And so there's a lot of things that you really can't do in a normal capacity that you can't get done in a two month or three month or two year investigation that you know, when you have the time to spread your wings and question your assumptions and talk to different people, you go, Well, what would happen if we tried to, you know, a lot of that doesn't work, but I'm trying to share with readers the things that I found that did work.
17:52
So that's, I mean, it's just fascinating. It's so I know something and that is that generally, people are really, really interested in investigations. They're interested in how investigations happen, how we get to do an investigation, and afternoon and this being an investigator especially lead investigator for the Yarnell Hill Fire is kind of a sacred duty smallest, not largest, but it's, it's really, it's, I don't know another better. I can't think of a better word than sacred. It's, there's, there's a tremendous amount of responsibility. And it's an important task, to have the opportunity and an unencumbered way to think through that process and to think through your process. That's, that's important for you. It's important for the reader that sounds it sounds good, how to how do we get them how are they available?
Brad Mayhew 18:52
The show Book One is available right now on Kindle on Amazon. I have not 100% locked down the schedule for when each future book will be released. But we're gonna do it as quick as we can.
Todd Conklin 19:12
Yeah, and that's fine. I mean, we can we can follow up and people can, I mean, I think it'll build its own interest. So I wouldn't worry too much about locking down the schedule. And right now, I hope so during the current academic schedules seem to be something that are very, very very fungible, they change a lot.
Brad Mayhew 19:31
Yeah, yes, I have found that things that I thought were going to take a couple of days take a couple of weeks, and there's no one thing you can point to ... it's just every kind of detail here. And I don't know how much of that is. You know that this is publishing which is a new world for me and how much of that is just some of what's happening in the world right now. But in answer to your question, Book One is available as a Kindle on Amazon right now. Number one, number two, we are working like like madmen. To get the paperback version. look one up on Amazon. By the time this airs, it should be available, or at least available for preorder. So it'll get shipped as soon as as it drops. And we should be getting books two and three up for pre-order too. And then finally, the most important thing is if you go to my website, it's firelinefactors.com. And there's a bunch of articles that I wrote for Firehouse Magazine, all the other investigations that I've done, the Yarnell Hill Fire investigation is up there, Human Factors articles, you know, that's all available, and that'll be a good resource for finding the books as well as getting ready to launch an email newsletter, as well as getting ready to launch my own podcast. So it's all ... it's all a really exciting time for me because, you know, I feel like I've been, you know, secret not ... not secretly but ... but withdrawn and trying to build all these things into finally bringing to the world is very exciting. And so there's gonna make a lot of mistakes. There's comment and book one about how watching me try to figure out what technology and publishing is caveman slapstick. Hope that some of your audience will smile with amusement at the mistakes that I will be making here but ... but the intent is to offer what I can
"... you know, I feel like I've been, you know, secret not ... not secretly but ... but withdrawn ..."
Brad Mayhew - Freudian slip? Or his true motives?
Todd Conklin 21:30
... to you, between you and I think I was pretty worried about you after the investigation. And I think this is a really very effective way to manage this post investigation, PTSD and ask for I think it is really healthy for you, I think. Yeah.
Brad Mayhew 21:52
Really tell me about ... you tell me how you think you shared that with me before
Todd Conklin 21:59
I realized especially when we met it was at Twentynine Palms. Yeah, whatever that place was. I was listening to that part.
Brad Mayhew 22:10
Joshua Tree NP.
Todd Conklin 22:11
That's why I just need to remember the YouTube album and I would have probably got it seemed like you were really feeling low, and that the investigation had had really dramatic impact on you and you were seeking desperately to kind of recover from it
Brad Mayhew 22:35
Wow that's fascinating. Wow. You know, it's ... it's ... it's interesting that you say that I in ... in building all this, I started ... I reached out to other other folks that had led other investigations. And almost all of them basically, it was a big investigation. Their lives kind of fell apart after Yeah. And consist, I mean, you know, suddenly they felt their agency turned against ... their family fell apart, you know, just all these different problems. Consistent in life that folks gave me was just walk away from this. You're now thinking Don't Don't, don't look back, don't touch it. You got to drop it. That's and that was how they recovered. And in my own case, I felt that you know, who knows? We'll see. We'll see what's we'll see. We'll see how it all shakes out. And in my own case, I felt that you know … who knows? We'll see. We'll see what's … we'll see. We'll see how it all shakes out. But for me, I thought that the most meaningful thing that I could do is find a way to make this meaningful, that will be the most meaningful thing that I could do.
Consider now Mr. Mayhew's allegedly ongoing blatantly incoherent babbling and circular reasoning, and begging the question.
William Lutz - Double-speak is language designed to evade responsibility, make the unpleasant appear pleasant, the unattractive appear attractive. Basically, it's language that pretends to communicate, but really doesn't. It is language designed to mislead, while pretending not to. Oh, yes! Very consciously. Doublespeak is not a slip of the tongue or a mistaken use of language, it's exactly the opposite. It is language used by people who are very intelligent and very sophisticated in the use of language, and know that you can do an awful lot with language. ... Yes, I, one I cite just as a passing example is Thucydides in the 5th century BC, in the Pelleponesian war. During the war there was a very vicious civil war in Athens at that time, and Thucydidies points out that at that time, the very language itself became corrupted to their own ends, acts of cowardice became acts of great bravery, traitorous deeds towards friends became patriotic acts, and he cites the whole list. And its interesting that Thucydidies cites this corruption of language as the ultimate in horror that occurred during that civil war. ... Oh yeah. When I was, head of the department, I had to engage in double-speak. You have to write recommendations, you have to write personnel evaluation forms. I had to pitch for more money, and so you use the double-speak of bureaucracy, as anyone else. If I were a bureaucrat who, who would function within the bureaucracy using straight language, I wouldn't be taken seriously. It, its a sort of ritualistic use of language. ... Oh yes. I don't think you'll ever get rid of it, I don't think we can. It is inherent in the function of language, to, to use language, to, as a weapon or as a tool, to manipulate other people, however, I think there are two things we can do. First of all, we can all become much more aware of this language. We should be aware of it, so that we can at least be defensive, and, and defend ourselves so that we're not misled through it. But secondly, there are times when we simply cannot tolerate this language. When we talk about important public issues of national policy, we should not use double-speak, as a nation. We should not use it ourselves. We should not allow the politicians, who are speaking to us, to use it. Language that way can be terribly corrupting in a society and can mislead all of us, and in a democracy that depends upon the active participation of its citizens, it can lead to cynicism and resentment and a withdrawal from the political process. Lutz Booknotes
And in my own case, I felt that you know … who knows? We'll see. We'll see what's … we'll see. We'll see how it all shakes out. But for me, I thought that the most meaningful thing that I could do is find a way to make this meaningful, that will be the most meaningful thing that I could do.
Figure 9. Excuses, actions, and truth quote Source: Positive Thoughts, FB
Todd Conklin 23:53
You sound better. You sound a million times better than you sounded in Joshua Tree. I was really worried. About. Yeah,
Brad Mayhew 24:00
thank you for saying that. Appreciate it and I would add, I would add not only do, I do not think that's what the best for, well, I don't know what's best for other investigators. It sure as hell is not best for the communities we're trying to serve. Because what happens is you get these individuals and small teams that are the world's experts on some issue or collection of issues. And then the only people that are going to be the experts because nobody can redo the investigation or the interviews that happened the day after. So that knowledge then immediately disappears, because it's part of our professional calendar or whatever you want to call it, a professional etiquette that we don't ... we don't regard it as appropriate and polite to go out and talk about this thing outside of an official capacity when you did a job within a ... within an official capacity. You don't think that's appropriate? We need to get over that. Because, again, you know, this accident ... if you look at the history of what evolved after this accident, there's a ... there's a cascading ... there are cascading tragedies of trauma leading to ... trauma leading to trauma at a community level. A huge set of those are things that I look at and I go when there's just misinformation that got circulated and we didn't have a system that could fix that and there is a part of me that I feel like you know, I wasn't involved. I didn't know all these things were going on in that community. But But we got to do better. We got to find a way to connect the community with the expertise over time. And even though I don't have all the answers, I think there is something that could be done. And there should be a different model where there's a long term relationship and long term growth. Learning is active and it's interactive and unfolds over time and we need to find a model where we can do that and just hey, I'm going to show up for a couple months and do my best rider report, throw it over the the wall and you know until the end of time you guys just have to deal with it. That is the model that's in place now. Was there anybody who designed it that way on purpose? That's pretty much how it is? And I don't think that's, you know, I don't think that's our most important stakeholder is the next generation of firefighters. And if you measure it by them, if you measure it by how much good does that do for the rookie who's starting tomorrow? How much good have we done for them? You can see that that model of learning that we have in place now is not serving the people who we should be most concerned about the service
Todd Conklin 26:58
And that my friends is the podcast. That's the conversation that Brad and I enjoyed with one another. And I I'm glad you listened to it. It was really it was a big lesson for me. I learned a lot talking to Brad. In Joshua Tree. I learned that the post traumatic harm that exists in an accident carries its way through to the investigation team. And I think I knew that academically. But I don't think I really realized that practically. And Brad helped me realize that by showing me how much he was struggling and how the struggle was pretty significant. And it wasn't just the struggle of emotions, although they were in lots of emotions. It was the struggle of helplessness and the feeling that you've learned so much, but the agency or the organization or the company or whoever you worked for, is not willing to hear the truth or doesn't have the ability to hear the truth or can't hear the truth. Those are my words, but that's that's what I saw. That's the pod. Thank you for your time. Learn something new every single day bet you did today. Have as much fun as you possibly can be kind to each other. It's important right now, and for goodness sakes. Be safe. [End of podcast]
Figure 10. (left) Exodus 14:14 (NIV) sword and scripture image Source: Tattoodo Figure 10a. (right) Hear no evil image Source: Shutterstock Figure 10b. (bottom right) Powerful and stupid and facts Source: FB
Prepare yourself for the arrogance, bravado, conceited, and over-the-top theatrics of this miraculous one-man-band Savior. You will be stupefied, literally in awe, wanting to grovel at his feet! OMG, shiver me timbers!
Figure 11. (left) Power to rule & make one grovel image Source: Liev Arts Figure 11a. (right) Shiver me timbers image Source: IMDb
American Fire Saga by Brad Mayhew
#6 - Lead Investigator Brad Mayhew (Feb 16, 2023). When I accepted the role of Lead Investigator of the Yarnell Hill Fire, I knew it would be a difficult job. And it did turn out to be the toughest thing I’ve done professionally.
What made it worthwhile to me was I knew that the fire service would learn and improve from this accident. I knew that based on our history.
Our last major double-digit fatality in wildland firefighting was The South Canyon Fire in 1994 (14 lost, Colorado). It led to a golden age of innovation and breakthroughs in Human Factors, Leadership Development, Learning Culture, and Accident Investigation Reform.
Before that was the 1966 Loop Fire (12 lost, Los Angeles County), which led to major advancements with radios, equipment and protective gear, and it was the precursor to the Incident Command System (ICS) and other massive efforts at interagency coordination.
We can go all the way through history, but the pattern is the same: big accidents led to big breakthroughs and years of innovation.
The Yarnell Hill Fire was the accident of our time. I saw our investigation as the first step in a big learning process, and I knew that in the long run firefighters would be better off for it.
This was my way to honor the fallen. What they went through was a nightmare. And so that’s why I resolved to do all I could in that investigation so other firefighters and leaders could avoid repeating it.
So it was a great honor to me to be asked to serve as lead investigator. It felt like an opportunity to do something really meaningful - not only for wildland firefighters and the hotshot community that had been so good to me, but for the whole American Fire Service. I threw myself into the mission. After the investigation, it was like passing the baton. I moved on to other fires, other investigations, other projects. But in the years following the accident, the major breakthroughs never came. So I decided to take up the mission of learning from this tragedy once again, this time with a new approach.
Given that YH Fire Investigator Mayhew boldly stated: "It felt like an opportunity to do something really meaningful - not only for wildland firefighters and the hotshot community that had been so good to me, but for the whole American Fire Service. I threw myself into the mission." Consider now the following images that SAIT Investigator Mayhew had at his disposal. The photos of all the radios taken by YCSO Waldock BEFORE they were removed from the site are still sitting online in the following InvestigativeMEDIA Dropbox. Caution is advised due to their graphic content and sensitivity. The DropBox "Read Me" text states: "Evidence Technician Katie Waldock of the Yavapai County Sheriff’s Office (YCSO) took these photos of the deployment site on July 3. The YCSO provided them to the Tony Petrilli, member of the Accident Investigation Team."
Figure 12. (TL - o001IMG; TR, ooo4IMG; SL, 0008IMG; SR, 00011IMG; TL, oo30IMG; TR, 00034IMG;
Figure 13. (left) Educate, listen, confidence quote. (right) Native listening quote Sources: (left) Face the Reality, FB (right) Native Spirit Stories, FB
"When we stop listening to anything
other than our own questions:
You see well enough. But you stop listening."
Tiny Thought
No one cares about your excuses as much as you do. In fact, no one cares about your excuses at all, except you. When people’s actions have outcomes that don’t line up with how they see themselves, they tend to insulate their egos by blaming other people or unfavorable circumstances. Phrases like, “It was a great idea just poorly executed,” ... “We did the best we could,” and “We never should’ve been in this situation in the first place,” are often manifestations of this self-preserving tendency. Here’s the thing: it might be true. Maybe it really wasn’t a bad idea, just bad execution. Maybe you really did do the best you could. Maybe you never should have been in that situation in the first place. It doesn’t really matter. No one cares. None of it changes the outcome or solves the problems that still remain. Just because something happened that was outside of your control doesn’t mean it’s not your responsibility to deal with circumstances the best you can. Focus on the next move. The next move makes the future easier or harder." (Farnam Street Brain Food No. 519 April 9, 2023)
"Never play with the feelings of others, because you may win the game but the risk is that you will surely lose the person for life time"
~ Shakespeare
Consider now these several ProPublica articles on historical Supreme Court jurisprudence and the more current movement(s) to revisit this precedential caselaw. ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. "Supreme Risk An interactive guide to rights the Supreme Court has established — and could take away." by Ian MacDougall and Sergio Hernandez June 1, 2023.
"Although most rights are secured by statutes and regulations, others are guarantees extrapolated by the court from the often abstract language of the Constitution. ... To get a better sense of which rights may be at risk — in whole or in part — ProPublica scoured judicial opinions, academic articles and public remarks by sitting justices. Some justices, like Clarence Thomas, have had decadeslong careers and lengthy paper trails. By contrast, Ketanji Brown Jackson, the newest justice, has almost no prior record. We found dozens of rights that at least one sitting justice has questioned. Below, you can explore these rights and the objections levied against them. We include federal legislation that’s been introduced to protect a given right, as well as lawsuits active in lower courts that could become vehicles for the justices to revisit existing rights in the future. ... About the Data - The data for this tool includes 39 rights extrapolated by the Supreme Court from the language of the U.S. Constitution. The highlighted rights are limited to ones for which ProPublica identified at least one instance where a sitting justice has advocated for overturning or reconsidering the right. To identify these, reporters reviewed hundreds of judicial opinions, academic articles and public remarks authored or made by the justices. For each right, ProPublica searched a variety of sources, including the legal research database Westlaw, to identify lower federal court cases that challenge the right. These cases do not necessarily represent the complete universe of litigation involving each right; they do not, for example, include cases filed in state or local courts that could eventually reach the Supreme Court. To identify legislation related to each right, reporters searched for key terms pertaining to each right in congressional databases, like ProPublica’s Represent and Congress’ own repository of federal bills, congress.gov. Data sources include the Harvard Law School Library’s Caselaw Access Project, the Free Law Project and ProPublica’s Represent."
Right to protections against defamation claims - In the nearly 60 years since the Supreme Court issued its opinion in New York Times Co. v. Sullivan, the justices have held that the First Amendment requires public figures or government officials who file defamation lawsuits to demonstrate that the defamatory statement was made with “actual malice” — that it was a lie or made with reckless disregard for the truth." Key Cases: New York Times Co. v. Sullivan (1964), Curtis Publishing Co. v. Butts (1967)
Justices Gorsuch and Thomas have called on the court to reconsider Sullivan in a set of recent concurring and dissenting opinions. To Thomas, Sullivan was an exercise in judicial activism that ignored how, if at all, the First Amendment protected defamation defendants at the time of the nation’s founding. Gorsuch, on the other hand, emphasized changes in the media landscape since the 1960s — for example, the rise of 24-hour cable news and online outlets, with their demands for speed and fresh content — that justified giving Sullivan a fresh look. Many of his concerns echoed a 1993 law review article by Justice Kagan, who was a law professor at the University of Chicago at the time. She worried, among other things, that the protections Sullivan bestowed provided an incentive for the media to take a more cavalier approach to accuracy. As a justice, however, Kagan has not joined calls to revisit Sullivan.
Figure 10. Facts, opinions, ignorance quotes Source: FaceBook
Right to be free from laws that risk chilling free speech - The First Amendment generally permits the government to regulate certain categories of speech, like obscenity or fraud. But the Supreme Court has also interpreted the amendment to prohibit laws that target those forms of speech if they’re written too loosely. The court’s concern is that such laws pose a high risk of chilling a lot of protected speech, such as political advocacy. The court has called this the “overbreadth doctrine.” Key Cases: Thornhill v. Alabama (1940), Broadrick v. Oklahoma (1973)
In 2020 and 2021, Justice Thomas authored opinions calling on the court to revisit the overbreadth doctrine, which he characterized as unduly protective of speech rights.
We also glory in tribulations, knowing that tribulation produces perseverance; and perseverance, character; and character, hope.
Romans 5: 3-4 (NKJV)
Figure 11. Two separate George Orwell Truth quotes Source: FaceBook
Consider now an excellent speech from a university lecture on legal studies from Liza Hall FB (Dec. 4, 2022) relevant to the ongoing Pastor Mayhew and the Yarnell Hill Fire and GMHS debacle truth telling
Kicked out of the university lecture Subject: Legal studies. First lecture. The professor enters the lecture hall. He looks around. "You there in the 8th row. Can you tell me your name?" he asks a student. "My name is Sandra" says a voice. The professor asks her, "Please leave my lecture hall. I don't want to see you in my lecture." Everyone is quiet. The student is irritated, slowly packs her things and stands up. "Faster please" she is asked. She doesn't dare to say anything and leaves the lecture hall. The professor keeps looking around. The participants are scared. "Why are there laws?" he asks the group. All quiet. Everyone looks at the others. "What are laws for?" he asks again. "Social order" is heard from a row A student says "To protect a person's personal rights." Another says "So that you can rely on the state." The professor is not satisfied. "Justice" calls out a student. The professor smiling. She has his attention. "Thank you very much. Did I behave unfairly towards your classmate earlier?" Everyone nods. "Indeed I did. Why didn't anyone protest? Why didn't any of you try to stop me? Why didn't you want to prevent this injustice?" he asks. Nobody answers. "What you just learned you wouldn't have understood in 1,000 hours of lectures if you hadn't lived it. You didn't say anything just because you weren't affected yourself. This attitude speaks against you and against life. You think as long as it doesn't concern you, it's none of your business. I'm telling you, if you don't say anything today and don't bring about justice, then one day you too will experience injustice and no one will stand before you. Justice lives through us all. We have to fight for it." “In life and at work, we often live next to each other instead of with each other. We console ourselves that the problems of others are none of our business. We go home and are glad that we were spared. But it's also about standing up for others. Every day an injustice happens in business, in sports or on the tram. Relying on someone to sort it out is not enough. It is our duty to be there for others. Speaking for others when they cannot.”
Figure 11a. Working environment quote Snippet Source: Wendi Jade, FaceBook, Yellow Seed Consulting
And now to address and answer the post title question: How are the Alleged Historical Fiction Writer John Maclean and the Alleged YH Fire Investigator Brad Mayhew Both Awry About the June 30, 2013, YH Fire?
Figure 11b. (left) Employees feeling safe image Source: Effective Leadership. FB
Figure 11c. (right) Correcting a fool and a wise man quote Source: FB
We could start with this WFSTAR Blow-up to Burnover image below (Figure 12.) indicating that it took the GMHS 52 minutes of clearly observing the deteriorating fire weather and the steadily increasing deteriorating fire behavior, while engaged in their GMHS Crew Net radio “discussing our options” whether to stay safely in the black or ignore their supposed PFD professional training and the numerous Watch Out Situations, and leave the Safety Zone and hike downhill through the unburned in chutes and chimneys down into the deadly bowl!
Figure 12. Blow-up to Burnover (52 minutes) Source: WFSTAR
Figure 13. (left) 'iPhone 4' photo of aggressive fire behavior photo by AZ Forestry Brian Lauber at 1629 on 6/30/13 near the Yarnell Ranch House restaurant looking west. This evidence photo (IMG_1334.JPG) was provided to Brad Mayhew, SAIT Lead Investigator, however, it was never included in the SAIR. Figure 13a. Idealized image in SAIT-SAIR Figure 18. from the SAIT-SAIR to support the alleged fire from above and below lie touted by PFD WBC Willis. " ... they knew that they had fire on both sides of them, they knew they had fire behind them and now they had fire ahead of them." Source: (left) Lauber, SAIT-SAIR; (right) SAIT-SAIR
"We take responsibility for our actions at the time we perform our actions, not at the time we get caught."
Simon Sinek
"When someone feels safe enough to raise their hands and say, 'I made a mistake' or 'I need some help,' according to Simon Sinek, that leader has created an environment where their people feel safe to be themselves.
Mistakes will happen; it is inevitable; what happens after differentiates average organizations from great ones. When errors are made, our actions shift from doing the right thing to covering our behinds. Pointing fingers rather than accepting personal responsibility, hiding errors rather than fixing them, and allowing minor problems to become big because they’re inadequately addressed."
"Remember that mistakes are vital to our growth; we often put way too much pressure on ourselves to seek some unrealistic ideal of perfection. As the leader, let your team know that there’s no shame in making mistakes, and most importantly, you have their back when they happen. Leaders are responsible for creating an environment where people feel safe to be themselves. When employees are scared to make mistakes, they become preoccupied with protecting themselves from the forces within the company instead of helping the leadership protect the company from external influences."
"Every mistake, every tragedy has shaped the people we are today. Only God erases our past, but still gives us the ability to learn and grow stronger from our mistakes. Let’s embrace those hard lessons and keep moving forward, for wisdom comes from the journey." M. Hendricks FB
Figure 14. Lies versus truth image Source: Fyodor Dostoevsky. FB
How often do people lie and cheat when they think they can get away with it? How can people be prompted to lie or cheat less often?
It should be obvious that this author takes exception to alleged Pastor Mayhew’s characterization of the professional practice of intellectual historians in general, present company included. Nevertheless, I am glad for the opportunity to share his perspective with our readers. This author has provided a fuller account of mine and other's experiences over the years with Mayhew’s rage against us opposing his machinations and revealing his lies and untruths about the June 2013 YH Fire and GMHS debacle. And that his curious and obnoxious blend of friendly banter and histrionics, combined with his assertive and boastful expressions for which he is known should be seen as at odds with who he really is and what he does when confronted with real challenges to his June 2013 YH Fire and GMHS debacle worldview being proselytized in the real world. This further suggests that we ought to be skeptical about his frequent, albeit universal practice in his self-proclaimed intellectual history: swallowing ideas whole without even scrutinizing what they actually translated into in reality.
Figure 14a. Do Not Be Deceived Snippet. Source: Bjorkbloggen
Consider whether alleged Pastor Mayhew has also read this paper titled: The Definition of Lying and Deception by James Edwin Mahon of the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (2008) and if he is aligning with their research. “This paper develops a novel account of the nature of disinformation that challenges several widely spread theoretical assumptions, such as that disinformation is a species of information, a species of misinformation, essentially false or misleading, essentially intended/aimed/having the function of generating false beliefs in/misleading hearers. The paper defends a view of disinformation as ignorance generating content.”
The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars; the men they detest most violently are those that are trying to tell them the truth.
H. L. Mencken
Figure 14b. Posting the truth image Source: God's Infallible Plan, FB
What this author, and others that have the same view, get back from Mayhew is an alleged furious rant and rave in public wildland fire forums (e.g. San Diego Wildland Fire/ And ignoring what us Truth Tellers would say in respectively ignoring her response to his request for "comments, questions, and smart remarks." YH Fire Eyewitness Hiker Joy A. Collura, without raising her hand, then immediately stated something to the effect of 'Mr. Mayhew, you originally stated at 8:38 am that you had successful interviews on your investigations. I was [one of the two YHF13'] eyewitness[es] and you never interviewed me. How come?' Mayhew outright ignored Joy A. Collura and then instantly rejected this author's attempt to respond to his subsequent request while merely by raising his hand to respond to Mayhew's request to everyone there for "any further comments or questions." Mayhew's assertive, loud, immediate, and non-inclusive response "not you Fred" immediately followed by one of the SDWFSS administrator's response something to the effect of "that's it, you're / we're done." The administrator clearly spearheaded this author with his assertive response, basically shutting down Mayhew's presentation, thus foreclosing anyone else's opportunity to respond. It was quite obvious to the bulk of SDWFSS participants that, even though invited, this author and Collura, one of the two YH Fire eyewitness hikers received much closer scrutiny than other participants.
Figure 14c. (left) Insecure Leaders image (right) Sit down and shut up image Source: (left) Authentic Leadership, FB (right) FB
Especially when the topic of the YH Fire and GMHS debacle is broached and discussed, the legacy of Mr. Mayhew's alleged prejudice is quite discernible toward the inclination - in some quarters - to require only his ideas to have influenced the political elite before any of us are even allowed to be deemed worthy of historical attention. It's as though there were some reason why we that have a different worldview of the YH Fire and GMHS debacle are somehow of less interest and significance than the fabricated and false YH Fire and GMHS debacle accounts. Indeed, this is particularly in the form of the claim that ideas of any degree of systematic expression or formal sophistication were given non-meritorious status regarding any and all detailed historical scrutiny because they were, by definition, only held by a small, supposedly 'elite, educated' and 'informed' minority (e.g. the SAIT and most all of the Subject Matter Experts) they used, excluding Dr. Ted Putnam from both the GMHS Deployment Zone and the SAIT.
Figure 14d. They fear you for speaking up image Source: FB
Consider this InvetigativeMEDIA (IM) post from (RTS) Robert the Second (this author) regarding the 1994 (CO) South Canyon Fire and comments made by Wildlandfire.com "They Said" webmaster Abercrombie.
This could very easily apply to the June 2013 YH fire and GMHS debacle.
The following is well worth reading, from the former ”Wildlandfire.com” – the self-proclaimed ”home of the wildland firefighter.” Among many resources on their site is the bulletin board, They Said It, which was first moderated by the original “Abercrombie” and now by Abby. They Said provides its readers with: "LCES: a Lookout for what we probably couldn’t otherwise see happening in the rest of the wildfire world; Communications to bring together a diverse group of agency, contractor and cooperator folks (and even some of those structure types); Escape routes for when the off-season or office day lasts too long or is just too far from the smoke; and ultimately, a Safety zone in the information, innovation and motivation to help bring us all back home.”
DEFINITELY check out the former WildlandFire.com – They Said archives (1999-2004) with a ton of good stuff! Especially read the "Common Errors 1919” and former Smokejumper (SMJ) Tony Petrilli’s witness statement from the South Canyon Fire report and “Similarities of Fatality Fires, Observations of Payne, 04/04” and all former USFS Hot Shot Supt. and FMO Doug Campbells’ (RiP) Campbell Prediction System (CPS) links. The “Wildlandfire.com They Said It” link below: ( http://www.wildlandfire.com/arc/arc.htm ) will likely need to be run through the “Internet Archive Wayback Machine” link ( https://archive.org/web/ ).
This is a great critique of the South Canyon Fire debacle and fully supporting the Fire Orders and the 18 Watch Out Situations by “They Said” Abercrombie
“Assuming there may be a few readers left with me here, I’ll now address the issues noted in the second paragraph of this article. The failure of a firefighter, all firefighters, any firefighters, regardless of rank, to follow established rules or guidelines have little to do with weather forecasters, district managers, or dispatch centers. Yet, Mr. Maclean in his ignorance and some of the readers of his book seem to prefer blaming some of these individuals, or others who were far from the fireline.
"An excess amount of uninformed, misplaced, insinuations filled far too many pages of the book as the author critiqued decisions and placed blame on those making decisions about when the fire first ignited, how long it was left to burn, whose jurisdiction or responsibility it was, and how long it took until resources began to attack the fire. I consider this extraneous information as fluff, dander, and fill to make the book fit the parameter of a novel at around 275 pages. Most of dialogue, interviews, and conclusions fail to address the primary responsibility of each firefighter to comply with the fundamental rules already existing to govern their actions and behavior."
“It didn’t matter if the South Canyon fire was burning for a week or a month, it didn’t matter if the fire was 5 or 500 acres prior to initial attack, or if there were 10 or 100 airtankers five miles away ideally spinning their props. Understand?"
“I believe adequate training was provided these people to prevent this scenario from happening. They just didn’t follow the rules. I would like to have the capability of making sure each firefighter reading this understands that a similar situation may happen to them on any given fire. My hopes are that each of you are aware that you have the right to “question authority.”
"Ensure you understand and are aware of the 10 Standard Orders and the 18 Watchout Situations! Make sure you understand them and apply them to every fire you fight. You have the right to refuse any assignment you are uncomfortable with. You have the right to say NO! "
“Seldom politically correct, always fire correct. . . Abercrombie"
Figure 14e. Opinions quote Source: TheRockle.com, Abercrombie’s best
Consider now Schoeffler’s 2023 San Diego Wildland Fire Safety Summit Evaluation in a Word doc format:
Did the information provided here meet your expectations? Yes ** No Please explain briefly* Overall excellent conference until Brad Mayhew's histrionic "The Firefighter Tradition of Learning and Innovation" and "American Fire Saga" animated performance, including ignoring one of the two YH Fire Eyewitnesses, Joy A. Collura's "comments, questions, or smart remarks" which he requested. And his assertive response "Not you Fred" when I raised my hand to respond to his request for "any other comments or questions." And Bill Bondshu spearheading me with his assertive response and shutting down the presentation. Both Joy and I always behaved and spoke professionally and respectfully, as expected and also as requested by Bill B. And yet Mayhew was allowed to act and speak both unprofessionally and disrespectfully. Why the double
standard? Why were we the only ones subjected to the bold restriction of our First Amendment right of Free Speech? How and why is it that Mayhew is given the ONLY source, venue, individual, whatever to have a monopoly on all things about the Federally-funded June 2013 YH Fire and GMHS SAIT-SAIR debacle? Most of us consider this tragedy to be the biggest cover-up, lie, and whitewash in wildland fire history. What did you like best?* Almost all of the presentations, especially Tony Mecham, John Bates (missed Dr. Catherine Butler to talk with Bates outside because he was melting down), John Hawkins, PG&E Wildfire Operations (Jeff and Russ?), Tom Rolinski, Escobar's Learning From the Past,Joe Harris and the long- overdue El Dorado fatality FLA, Fernando Monte's hydration study, Josh Eichamer – USFS FMO SRF, Luis Gomez – USFS DFMO MNF, and of course, the After Hours Networking. I saw Doug & Dylan Van Iwardeen's emotional and courageous Silverado Fire HC Lessons Learned at the US HS Assoc. two weeks prior in San Diego at the nearby Holiday Inn.
What did you like the least?* No time was allowed for 5 Minute Presentations (I had hoped to discuss the 25+ yearly Death From Above (hazard trees), How to Properly Refuse Risk IRPG p. 19, and the absolute responsibility of the importance of leadership) And, of course, the YH Fire and GMHS "Lead Investigator" Brad Mayhew's histrionic "The Firefighter Tradition of Learning and Innovation" and "American Fire Saga" animated performance where he danced around laughing, and joking about what most of us consider to be the biggest cover-up, lie, and whitewash in wildland fire history. And how and why you all allow Mayhew to be the ONLY source, venue, individual, whatever to have a strictly enforced monopoly on all things about the Federally-funded June 2013 YH Fire and GMHS SAIT- SAIR debacle. You aligned with and honored your “LEARNING FROM THE PAST” theme with ALL other presentations EXCEPT for Mayhew's histrionics and feckless attempt.
What subject matters would you like to see addressed at future summits?* Open discussion about the June 2013 YH Fire and GMHS debacle. I think about those men EVERY day! I read, research, present, and write articles, papers, and posts about this predictable and preventable tragedy on a regular basis. Fred J. Schoeffler - Project 10 & 18 International. Here are my [ Google Scholar ] articles and such and our internationally-acclaimed-and- recognized-and-cited [YHFR website] where we honor the dead by telling the truth instead of lying and dishonoring the dead, revealing evidence of up to three separate firing operations responsible for the GMHS deaths, how Mayhew’s SAIT blocked the ADOSH investigation the entire way, the countless missing evidences and Public Records, and so much more. Do you have any comments on the guest speakers?* I helped Brad Mayhew out when I was still the Payson HS Supt. when former LPHS Supt. Mark Linane asked me to look at his nascent work on LCES; approving and encouraging him to carry on with it. And he did! If you checkout his [Fireline Factors website] you'll readily notice they have chosen him to "investigate" and "review" numerous other wildland fire mishaps because I allege he drank the Kool-Aid and toes the Party Line and will write whatever they tell him to write! Lead Investigator Brad Mayhew is profiting off the deaths of the 19 GMHS and his Federally-funded YH Fire SAIT-SAIR by being paid to come to allegedly to "investigate" it and also these venues (SD WF SS and SC FFW) selling his book series while refusing to allow open discussion when he asks the question: "Are there any comments, questions, or smart remarks." He totally avoided the actual posted content and topics of his alleged presentation! And the SD WF SS assuredly PAID for his histrionic performance masquerading as a presentation. Any additional comments or suggestions for the cadre concerning the summit?* We are "ALLOWED" to talk about ALL other historical wildland fires except one - the YH Fire and GMHS debacle! Why is that? You all most definitely opened a lot of eyes and inquiring minds when Mayhew outright ignored Joy, assertively rebuffed me, and then Bill B. "spearheading" me and shutting it all down! So then, allow others to discuss and/or present on the June 2013 YH Fire and GMHS debacle because people are starving for honest dialogue and information on this subject because for ten years now, they intuitively "know something is wrong about the whole thing." In other words, this will go on for eternity.
Interestingly, retired Placer Hills and Newcastle Fire Protection Chief Kirk Kushen posted recently on LinkedIn a glowing review for you guys. "One of the best conferences there is! Bill Bondshu did a great job spearheading this event! It was always very informative and a good time was had by all. ..." Always very informative? And a good time was had by all. Really? I commented on his post, however, he either blocked it or removed it. Thanks Chief.
Thank you for the opportunity to take a moment for me to provide valued information and input comments for future summits. I hope that others took the time to honestly leave their comments as well." End of Schoeffler's SD WF SS Evaluation.
Figure 14f. Love / Hate quote Source: Lessons Taught by Life, FB
Blessed are you when they revile and persecute you, and say all kinds of evil against you falsely for My sake.
Matthew 5:11 (NKJV)
From across the pond, yet very much applicable in the US: "'Intellectual history' is a label applied to a wide range of enquiries dealing with the articulation of ideas in the past. At its core has been the close study of written expressions of thought, especially those crafted at a fairly sophisticated or reflective level. A constitutive part of such study is the attempt to recover the assumptions and contexts which contributed to the fullness of meaning that such writings possessed for their original publics.
"It may be that there is no longer any need to justify the term 'intellectual history' or the practice for which it stands. If this is so – experience can, alas, still occasionally cause one to wonder – then it is a relatively recent development, at least in Britain. Only three or four decades ago, the label routinely encountered more than its share of misunderstanding, some of it rather wilful, especially perhaps on the part of some political and social historians. There was, to begin with, the allegation that intellectual history was largely the history of things that never really mattered. The long dominance of the historical profession by political historians tended to breed a kind of philistinism, an unspoken belief that power and its exercise was what 'mattered' (a term which invited but rarely received any close scrutiny). The legacy of this prejudice is still discernible in the tendency in some quarters to require ideas to have 'influenced' the political elite before they can be deemed worthy of historical attention, as though there were some reason why the history of art or of science, of philosophy or of literature, were somehow of less interest and significance than the histories of policies and parliaments." Intellectual history Making History Stefan Collini
Figure 14f. Truth passages quote Source: Arthur Schopenhauer, FB
How do empaths destroy narcissists? 1. Crush the Narcissist’s Sense of Entitlement - The Toxic Narcissist
1) A toxic person does not care to consider the experiences of others. Because of this, he starts believing that everything is the next person's fault. You have to prove yourself innocent.
2) A toxic person collects material to hurt other people. Gossip and bullying make them feel powerful, so they are happy to exploit others for their own personal gain.
3) A toxic person does not think critically about how his negative energy can bring others down. Because of this, they feel comfortable complaining constantly.
4) Toxic people may get away from their movements for a while, but over time, they lose friendships and close relationships due to bad behavior.
5) Toxic people worry about their own status, don't care about other people. Many people are happy to spread the truth when it benefits them.
6) Toxic people, if they want a particular result, will try to control other people to do it.
7) Toxic people think about their needs, not yours. So most of the time, these people will use force to get what they want from you. (Quora)
(Intellectual history - Stefan Collini - Making History)
Figure 15. Speaking the truth image Source: First Nation, FB
Blessed are you when they revile and persecute you, and say all kinds of evil against you falsely for My sake. Matthew 5:11 (NKJV)
Figure 16. June 30. 2013, GMHS hiking two-track road Source: Collura
Consider now the EMF FaceBook page with this author's comments. It's always interesting to see how long they “allow” them to remain there.
Figure 16a. GMHS Mackenzie (RiP) (6/30/13) video screenshot Source: FB
Hopefully, by now, you are at least a lot more informed on the issues at hand here, especially those related to "Lead Investigator" Brad Mayhew with his over-the-top efforts to maintain his "status" and his ongoing prideful path of aggrandizement, as well as Ad Hominem attacks on anyone that disagrees with him or opposes his efforts. This author alleges that he has maligned me to many of my colleagues and friends.
And at least a little more related to "historical fiction" author John Maclean. In this author's professional opinion, Mayhew having established himself as the YH Fire and GMHS debacle "Lead Investigator" must continue to assert himself as such along with his predetermined "conclusion" of the SAIT-SAIR (p. 4) stating that they found “...no indication of negligence, reckless actions, or violations of policy or protocol”
Figure 17. 1 Samuel 31:8-13 Bible quote Source: Collura
"When you go out to battle against your enemies, and see horses and chariots and people more numerous than you, do not be afraid of them; for the Lord your God is with you, ,,," Deuteronomy 20:1 (NKJV)
'Repay no one evil for evil. Have regard for good things in the sight of all men. If it is possible, as much as depends on you, live peaceably with all men. Beloved, do not avenge yourselves, but rather give place to wrath; for it is written, “Vengeance is Mine, I will repay,” says the Lord. ... Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good." Romans 12:17-19, 21 (NKJV)
The Whole Duty of Man
"Let us hear the conclusion of the whole matter:
Fear God and keep His commandments, For this is man’s all. For God will bring every work into judgment, Including every secret thing, Whether good or evil."
Ecclesiastes 12: 12-14 (NKJV)
Consider this author's (Douglas) KTAR News Rules of Engagement comment
Figure 17a. (below) KTAR News Snippet of Rules of Engagement Source: KTAR News
Consider now the germane Effectivology article (May 2, 2023) based on this Perspectives on Psychological Science open-access linked research paper (March 17, 2023) titled: Toward Parsimony in Bias Research: A Proposed Common Framework of Belief-Consistent Information Processing for a Set of Biases.
Figure 18. Becoming blind image Source: Authentic Leadership. FB
The several Truth Teller authors' adopted this goal: "Here we argue that several - so far mostly unrelated - biases (e.g., bias blind spot, hostile media bias, egocentric / ethnocentric bias, outcome bias) can be traced back to the combination of a fundamental prior belief and humans’ tendency toward belief-consistent information processing." (Sage Journal)
"The way people process information is usually biased in various ways.
Many different biases can be explained by the same mechanism: the tendency to process information in a way that confirms - rather than contradicts - preexisting beliefs. According to this view, many biases are simply variants of the confirmation bias, and differ mainly in terms of the key belief that they confirm."
"For example, the illusion of transparency (overestimating the degree to which our inner states are apparent to others) can be explained by an underlying belief that our perspective is a good frame of reference, while the bias blind spot (underestimating our likelihood of being biased) can be explained by an underlying belief that our judgments are correct.
Different biases can even be caused by the same underlying belief, playing a role in different contexts; for example, both the illusion of transparency (explained above) and the false-consensus effect (overestimating how much others agree with us) can be explained by the belief that our perspective is a good frame of reference."
"From a practical perspective, this can give you a good starting point when trying to debias people, including yourself. Specifically, this suggests that you can often start by identifying the preexisting belief that’s underlying a certain bias, and then trying to either address that belief, or present information in a way that won’t contradict it."
"I think this psychological framework is beneficial, because it helps consolidate the explanations of different biases, which are often investigated as part of overly separate lines of research. That said, as the authors of this paper note, there are many other factors that can cause and influence these biases, so while this is a useful and parsimonious way of viewing biases, it doesn’t aim to fully explain everything about them."
Figure 18a. (left) Correcting a fool and a wise man quote Source: FB Figure 18b. (right) Wisdom and knowledge quote Source: Charles Spurgeon, Bible.org, FB
USFS Saddleback Fire Learning Review (Fatality Report). Brad Mayhew is one of the "Review Team." On the cover - “The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance - It is the illusion of knowledge.” Daniel J. Boorstin. The "Review Team" telling you what they are about to do.
Purpose of the Learning Review - If we don’t find fault, what can we do?
"The aim of this Learning Review is to understand the rationale for the actions/decisions involved in the incident and then, if possible, to learn from them. Achieving this goal requires a deliberate effort to place decisions and actions in the detailed context in which they occurred, including an understanding of the pressures faced by all those involved in the incident."
“Building Context Around Actions/Decisions - There were a variety of different factors and pressures influencing actions/decisions (Footnote 9) during the Saddleback incident, which are likely present in any organizations, or work environments. The Learning Review Team interviewed a diverse group of firefighters to develop a list of factors that were present at Saddleback, as well as in normal operations. Footnote 9. (p. 14) “There were occasions during the Review where the difference between actions and decisions could not be separated, thus the term actions/decisions was used, as it could have been either one, or a combination of both.”
Did you notice the ever so sleight-of-hand intentionally deceptive Orwellian manipulation of the meanings of two separate and distinct words “actions” and “decisions”?
The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum. That gives people the sense that there's free thinking going on, while all the time the presuppositions of the system are being reinforced by the limits put on the range of the debate.
Noam Chomsky (Philo Thoughts, FB)
Consider reviewing Ten Years After the Yarnell Hill Fire" by Kelly Woods, Director of the WLF LLC as they weasel-word their way along attempting to explain the "why" about the YH Fire and GMHS debacle, the biggest cover-up, lie, and whitewash in wildland fire history - ten years later!
The WLF LLC Two More Chains - Ten Years After the Yarnell Hill Fire (Spring 2023 ▲ Vol. 12 Issue 1) is worth reading in spite of Erin Phelps, in her "The Realities of Managing Risk" section using the nebulous word "evolve" at least ten times while discussing the YH Fire and the August 2016 Strawberry Fire on the Great Basin Natl. Park in Nevada where a Lolo HS was killed in a felling operation. This author was a Type 2 Safety Officer on that tragedy fire and filed a SAFENET regarding the arrogance, persistent attitude, and Double Standard held by current and/or former on the aerial-delivered FFs as well as the leadership and human factors regarding PPE.
This was the first of three SAFENETS filed in ID and NV by this author in 2016, all of them on aerial-delivered FFs and these Quisling Hot Shot "Brothers" that would remember and "pay me back in spade" a year later in 2017 because of this author's stance on revealing the biggest cover-up, lie, and whitewash in wildland fire history. It was initiated by another very vindictive, self-righteous aerial-delivered FFs and Quisling Hot Shot "Brother" serving as the Type One Deputy IC that least was vindictively gracious and kind enough to offer me a Kangaroo Court hearing. This was after this loathsome Deputy IC, also a member of the US Hot Shot Association, threatened this author’s IMT supervisor to “just do what we f**king tell you to do and get rid of that f**king Schoeffler.”
Figure 19. Mistakes, evil, and pride quote Source: Sophocles, FB
Figure 19a. Speaking the truth quote Source: Dark Universe-09, FB
Figure 20. Speaking or silence quote Source: FB
Figure 20a. Accept and tolerance quote Source: FB
Figure 20b. (left) Truth and help yourself or what they want to hear quote Source: Thomas Sowell, FB Figure 20c. (right) Cowardice and shutting your eyes to facts quote Source: C.S. Lewis, FB
Consider this expression you'll find in the King James Bible (1 Peter 1:13). It basically means you need to prepare for action by pulling up your robe and tying it around your waist so you can both move easier and ride your horse comfortably.
Figure 21. Girding your loins quote Source: The Art of Manliness
